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Finance · Polymarket

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027?

Trade on Polymarket →
66.00%
Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 07405060708090100%66.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 69.9% in 14d (57.2–80.1%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$1.9K
Momentum
+0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 66.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price66.00%
Spread + depth+1.31 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability67.31%
1486
Shares
$486
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (3.0%)
Mid Price
66.0¢
Total Depth
$6,915
Bid/Ask Imbalance
38% bid
Bids (Buy)
65.0¢1,058
64.0¢1,455
63.0¢1,420
60.0¢98
59.0¢16
58.0¢89
56.0¢30
26.0¢40
Asks (Sell)
67.0¢1,031
68.0¢2,454
69.0¢1,809
70.0¢500
72.0¢16
73.0¢170
74.0¢9
76.0¢6
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
67.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
67.31¢+0.46%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
69.19¢+3.28%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 66.00%, based on $1.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.