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Finance · Polymarket

Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?

Trade on Polymarket →
77.00%
Fri 04Sat 05Sep 06Mon 07Tue 08Wed 09Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 27Mon 28Tue 292030405060708090100%77.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 91.9% in 14d (81.6–96.7%)+0.03pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$2.8K
Momentum
+0.03pt/day

Your call

The market says 77.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price77.00%
Spread + depth+3.78 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability80.78%
1238
Shares
$238
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
4.0¢ (5.2%)
Mid Price
77.0¢
Total Depth
$2,421
Bid/Ask Imbalance
13% bid
Bids (Buy)
75.0¢250
74.0¢50
73.0¢100
68.0¢5
11.0¢40
10.0¢24
7.0¢51
3.0¢13
Asks (Sell)
79.0¢150
80.0¢110
81.0¢900
82.0¢19
83.0¢79
84.0¢85
86.0¢20
88.0¢20
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
79.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
80.78¢+2.25%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
87.67¢+10.97%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

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Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 77.00%, based on $2.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.