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Politics · Polymarket

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Trade on Polymarket →
52.50%
Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 274446485052545658%52.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 53.2% in 14d (52.2–54.2%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$81.3K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 52.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price52.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability53.00%
1887
Shares
$887
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.9%)
Mid Price
52.5¢
Total Depth
$1,832,713
Bid/Ask Imbalance
5% bid
Bids (Buy)
52.0¢9,730
51.0¢4,352
50.0¢13,473
49.0¢6,430
48.0¢4,452
47.0¢6,594
46.0¢1,014
45.0¢324
Asks (Sell)
53.0¢2,401
54.0¢8,784
55.0¢20,957
56.0¢215,211
57.0¢6,659
58.0¢5,120
59.0¢5,610
60.0¢9,517
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
53.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
53.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
54.26¢+2.38%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

PredictItWhich party will control the Senate after the 2026 election?: Democratic
48.50%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 52.50%, based on $81.3K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 3, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.