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Economics · Polymarket

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?

Trade on Polymarket →
31.50%
Current Fed Funds Rate3.63%as of 2026-08-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)
Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 0715202530354045%31.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 35.1% in 14d (30.6–39.9%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$2.1K
Momentum
+0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 31.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price31.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability32.00%
3125
Shares
$2,125
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (3.2%)
Mid Price
31.5¢
Total Depth
$1,353,841
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
31.0¢677
30.0¢639
29.0¢3,364
28.0¢3,066
27.0¢20
25.0¢230
24.0¢510
23.0¢200
Asks (Sell)
32.0¢6,968
33.0¢12,539
34.0¢42,280
35.0¢19,098
36.0¢584
37.0¢1,327
38.0¢1,434
39.0¢200
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
32.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
32.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
33.12¢+3.51%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 31.50%, based on $2.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 28, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.