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Culture · Polymarket

Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?

Trade on Polymarket →
12.00%
AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 130510152025303540%12.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 11.3% in 14d (8.3–15.1%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$5.2K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (16.7%)
Mid Price
12.0¢
Total Depth
$6,658
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
11.0¢20
10.0¢310
9.0¢75
8.0¢167
5.0¢12
4.0¢288
3.0¢234
2.0¢16
Asks (Sell)
13.0¢19
15.0¢67
20.0¢19
21.0¢10
22.0¢100
46.0¢15
47.0¢505
60.0¢50
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
29.23¢+124.85%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
57.79¢+344.53%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
87.79¢+575.27%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?
45.00%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 12.00%, based on $5.2K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.