Live odds aggregated fromPolymarket logoPolymarketKalshi logoKalshiManifold logoManifoldPredictIt logoPredictItLimitless logoLimitlessSmarkets logoSmarketsFutuurSee ranked by volume →
AI · Polymarket

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?

Trade on Polymarket →
33.60%
29.8% calibrated
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 170102030405060%33.60%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 37.0% in 14d (27.5–47.7%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$7.3K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 33.6%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price33.60%
Spread + depth+22.53 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability56.13%
1782
Shares
$782
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
4.6¢ (13.7%)
Mid Price
33.6¢
Total Depth
$6,043
Bid/Ask Imbalance
3% bid
Bids (Buy)
31.3¢30
31.2¢64
31.0¢88
30.9¢55
19.5¢29
19.4¢27
16.2¢50
15.2¢44
Asks (Sell)
35.9¢30
36.0¢50
36.2¢81
36.3¢74
36.4¢220
36.7¢164
37.2¢67
39.9¢155
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
36.19¢+0.80%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
56.13¢+56.34%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
87.41¢+143.48%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Similar AI Markets

Manifold logoManifold
31.41%+218

Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?

31.41%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 855 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
45.03%+122

Will Openai Release a new Luna Model alongside the next Frontier Model

45.03%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 39 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
55.33%-124

Will Quasar 438B be listed on arena.ai in two weeks?

55.33%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 30 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
29.57%+238

Will I purchase an ChatGPT/Astra subscription in the next month?

29.57%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 66 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
50.85%-103

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

50.85%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 155 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
85.76%-602

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

85.76%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 42 Mana

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 33.60%, based on $7.3K in tracked 24h trading volume.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.