AI · Polymarket

Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?

95.25%

Model projection: 94.6% in 14d (89.5–97.3%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "Yes" at 95.25% on "Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?", backed by $56 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $56
Momentum: -0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

3.7¢ (3.9%)

Mid Price

95.3¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$3,030

Bid/Ask Imbalance

14% bid

Bids (Buy)

93.4¢30

93.3¢42

93.0¢60

90.7¢26

87.0¢40

50.3¢20

50.2¢10

40.8¢50

Asks (Sell)

97.1¢37

97.2¢8

97.3¢5

97.4¢55

97.5¢60

98.8¢8

98.9¢11

99.0¢18

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

97.27¢+0.18%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

99.26¢+2.22%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

99.65¢+2.63%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 95.25%, based on $56 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.