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Culture · Polymarket

Will the next Mythos-Class model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

Trade on Polymarket →
94.50%
07 PM08 PM09 PM10 PM11 PMWed 0201 AM02 AM03 AM04 AM05 AM06 AM07 AM08 AM09 AM10 AM11 AM12 PM50556065707580859095100%94.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$3.4K

Your call

The market says 94.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price94.50%
Spread + depth+2.40 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability96.90%
1032
Shares
$32
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
3.0¢ (3.2%)
Mid Price
94.5¢
Total Depth
$3,036
Bid/Ask Imbalance
44% bid
Bids (Buy)
93.0¢883
91.0¢41
88.0¢20
87.0¢8
86.0¢28
85.0¢20
83.0¢60
38.0¢500
Asks (Sell)
96.0¢330
97.0¢473
98.0¢280
99.0¢665
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
96.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
96.90¢+0.94%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
97.73¢+1.80%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?
98.13%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the next Mythos-Class model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 94.50%, based on $3.4K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.