Politics · Polymarket

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 52%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

52.50%

Model projection: 52.8% in 14d (51.6–54.0%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "Yes" at 52.5% on "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?", backed by $103.2K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $103.2K
Momentum: +0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 52.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price52.50%

Spread + depth+0.50 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability53.00%

1887

$887

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

1.0¢ (1.9%)

Mid Price

52.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$866,752

Bid/Ask Imbalance

3% bid

Bids (Buy)

52.0¢225

51.0¢1,632

50.0¢1,054

49.0¢1,462

48.0¢3,029

47.0¢2,627

46.0¢1,237

45.0¢288

Asks (Sell)

53.0¢5,223

54.0¢13,616

55.0¢9,655

56.0¢8,353

57.0¢3,537

58.0¢5,584

59.0¢12,931

60.0¢7,084

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

53.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

53.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

53.72¢+1.36%

avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

PredictItWhich party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Texas?: Republican

52.00%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 52.50%, based on $103.2K in tracked 24h trading volume.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.