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Culture · Polymarket

Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
42.00%
Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19253035404550556065%42.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 42.2% in 14d (37.4–47.2%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$491
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 42.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price42.00%
Spread + depth+19.91 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability61.91%
1615
Shares
$615
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (4.8%)
Mid Price
42.0¢
Total Depth
$5,320
Bid/Ask Imbalance
14% bid
Bids (Buy)
41.0¢99
40.0¢69
39.0¢120
38.0¢74
37.0¢26
36.0¢40
35.0¢195
34.0¢613
Asks (Sell)
43.0¢60
44.0¢156
45.0¢113
46.0¢103
47.0¢150
50.0¢50
51.0¢68
52.0¢40
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
43.79¢+1.84%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
61.91¢+43.97%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
86.86¢+101.99%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 42.00%, based on $491 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 31, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.