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Culture · Polymarket

Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
0.05%
Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 0700.511.522.53%0.05%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 0.5% in 14d (0.5–0.5%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$44.4K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 0.1%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price0.50%
Spread + depth+1.14 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability1.64%
60960
Shares
$59,960
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
—
Mid Price
—
Total Depth
$21,234,469
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
Asks (Sell)
0.1¢38,305
0.4¢455
0.6¢13,590
0.7¢1,298
0.8¢542
0.9¢2,429
1.2¢156
1.8¢583
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
0.21¢+105.17%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
1.64¢+1540.42%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
13.52¢+13421.04%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 3 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

Donald Trump
1.65%
Xi JinpingViewing
0.05%
Benjamin Netanyahu
0.05%

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 0.05%, based on $44.4K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around April 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.