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Sports · Polymarket

US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens

Trade on Polymarket →
63.50%
03 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMSat 0503 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMSep 066065707580859095%64.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$437.7K

Your call

The market says 63.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price63.50%
Spread + depth−0.36 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability63.14%
1584
Shares
$584
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
8.0¢ (13.8%)
Mid Price
58.0¢
Total Depth
$57,158
Bid/Ask Imbalance
32% bid
Bids (Buy)
54.0¢16
53.0¢5
52.0¢51
51.0¢25
49.0¢157
48.0¢839
47.0¢15,036
46.0¢14,073
Asks (Sell)
62.0¢146
63.0¢1,063
64.0¢15,713
65.0¢15,116
66.0¢937
67.0¢305
68.0¢1,149
73.0¢41
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
62.09¢+0.15%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
63.14¢+1.85%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
63.91¢+3.09%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)60.82%
Platforms disagree by 15pts — wider than usual, worth checking each quote below before trusting the average.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
PolymarketUS Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens63.50%63¢ / 64¢
82%
Limitless
Furthest from consensus
Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens48.50%46.2¢ / 50.8¢
18%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 63.50%, based on $437.7K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 11, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: Limitless (48.50%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 60.82%. See the full comparison table below.