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Culture · Polymarket

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Trade on Polymarket →
5.50%
Fri 31AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 110510152025%5.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 4.5% in 14d (3.4–6.0%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$7.7K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (18.2%)
Mid Price
5.5¢
Total Depth
$181,505
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
5.0¢17,683
4.0¢27,075
3.0¢6,154
2.0¢8,629
1.0¢16,714
Asks (Sell)
6.0¢58
7.0¢6,962
8.0¢11,338
9.0¢18,058
10.0¢5,000
11.0¢5,520
12.0¢15,000
13.0¢7,238
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
6.96¢+15.99%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
7.47¢+24.52%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
11.01¢+83.43%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
4.11%
Same bet?

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 5.50%, based on $7.7K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.