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Finance · Polymarket

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 17?

Trade on Polymarket →
77.30%
Live Bitcoin Price$76,078▼ 3.02% 24h· via CoinGecko
Fri 1112 PMSat 1212 PMSep 1312 PMMon 1412 PMTue 1512 PMWed 1612 PMThu 1712 PM405060708090100%76.65%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 82.2% in 2d (70.7–89.8%)+0.04pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$13.0K
Momentum
+0.04pt/day

Your call

The market says 77.3%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price77.30%
Spread + depth+1.23 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability78.53%
1273
Shares
$273
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.3%)
Mid Price
77.5¢
Total Depth
$253,431
Bid/Ask Imbalance
15% bid
Bids (Buy)
77.0¢243
76.9¢500
76.0¢688
75.6¢5,011
74.6¢7,100
74.2¢340
73.8¢510
70.7¢400
Asks (Sell)
78.0¢18
78.1¢15
78.3¢237
78.6¢7,100
78.8¢500
79.0¢500
80.1¢560
80.4¢688
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
78.23¢+0.30%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
78.53¢+0.68%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
79.38¢+1.77%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 17?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 77.30%, based on $13.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 17, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.