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Culture · Polymarket

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Trade on Polymarket →
26.00%
Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 192224262830323436%26.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 26.0% in 14d (23.9–28.2%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$21.8K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 26.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price26.00%
Spread + depth+4.55 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability30.55%
3274
Shares
$2,274
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (7.7%)
Mid Price
26.0¢
Total Depth
$54,015
Bid/Ask Imbalance
45% bid
Bids (Buy)
25.0¢229
24.0¢2,225
23.0¢9,406
22.0¢18,306
21.0¢20,000
20.0¢10,000
18.0¢10
16.0¢1,000
Asks (Sell)
27.0¢55
28.0¢164
29.0¢327
30.0¢399
31.0¢2,043
32.0¢1,255
33.0¢5,100
34.0¢925
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
28.23¢+4.54%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
30.55¢+13.14%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
45.19¢+67.37%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 26.00%, based on $21.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.