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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
51.00%
12 PMWed 2612 PMThu 2712 PMFri 2812 PMSat 2912 PMAug 3012 PMMon 3112 PMSeptember12 PMWed 0212 PMThu 0312 PMFri 04010203040506070%51.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$106.6K

Your call

The market says 51.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price51.00%
Spread + depth+5.12 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability56.12%
1782
Shares
$782
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.9%)
Mid Price
51.5¢
Total Depth
$172,278
Bid/Ask Imbalance
2% bid
Bids (Buy)
51.0¢477
50.0¢3,609
49.0¢320
48.0¢141
47.0¢197
46.0¢20
45.0¢26
44.0¢5
Asks (Sell)
52.0¢10
53.0¢120
54.0¢154
55.0¢431
56.0¢303
57.0¢289
58.0¢369
59.0¢294
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
53.25¢+2.41%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
56.12¢+7.92%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
75.25¢+44.72%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 51.00%, based on $106.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.