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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
11.25%
12 PMWed 2612 PMThu 2712 PMFri 2812 PMSat 2912 PMAug 3012 PMMon 3112 PMSeptember12 PMWed 0212 PMThu 0312 PM02468101214161820%16.55%

Stats

24h Volume
$73.0K

Your call

The market says 11.3%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price11.25%
Spread + depth+16.05 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability27.30%
3663
Shares
$2,663
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.3¢ (2.8%)
Mid Price
10.8¢
Total Depth
$260,780
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
10.7¢102
10.6¢80
10.5¢82
10.3¢10
10.0¢245
9.6¢10
9.2¢45
9.1¢323
Asks (Sell)
11.0¢5
11.3¢77
11.4¢80
11.6¢80
12.0¢150
12.4¢100
12.5¢100
14.5¢7
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
12.95¢+17.75%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
27.30¢+148.18%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
65.05¢+491.34%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 11.25%, based on $73.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.