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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
0.15%
12 PMAug 3012 PMMon 3112 PMSeptember12 PMWed 0212 PMThu 0312 PMFri 0412 PMSat 0512 PMSep 0612 PMMon 0712 PMTue 0812 PM00.511.522.53%0.15%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 0.5% in 6d (0.4–0.5%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$26.8K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 0.1%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price0.50%
Spread + depth+9.69 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability10.19%
9809
Shares
$8,809
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.1¢ (66.7%)
Mid Price
0.1¢
Total Depth
$30,104
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
0.1¢23,635
Asks (Sell)
0.2¢1,940
0.3¢200
0.4¢307
0.5¢506
1.0¢270
1.1¢150
1.2¢50
1.4¢50
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
2.10¢+949.80%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
10.19¢+4997.36%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
49.66¢+24730.47%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?
98.13%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 0.15%, based on $26.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 8, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.