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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
54.50%
Sep 2706 AM12 PM06 PMMon 2806 AM12 PM06 PMTue 2906 AM12 PM06 PMWed 302030405060708090100%54.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$57.4K

Your call

The market says 54.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price54.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability55.00%
1818
Shares
$818
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.8%)
Mid Price
54.5¢
Total Depth
$23,919
Bid/Ask Imbalance
6% bid
Bids (Buy)
54.0¢159
53.0¢300
52.0¢52
51.0¢121
50.0¢61
49.0¢5
48.0¢91
47.0¢265
Asks (Sell)
55.0¢4,997
56.0¢370
57.0¢353
58.0¢498
59.0¢452
61.0¢125
62.0¢546
63.0¢40
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
55.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
55.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
69.36¢+26.10%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 54.50%, based on $57.4K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 30, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.