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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
50.50%
09 PMSeptember03 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMWed 0203 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM4042444648505254%50.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$11.3K

Your call

The market says 50.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price50.50%
Spread + depth+1.56 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability52.06%
1921
Shares
$921
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.0%)
Mid Price
50.5¢
Total Depth
$27,814
Bid/Ask Imbalance
15% bid
Bids (Buy)
50.0¢129
49.0¢310
48.0¢855
47.0¢762
46.0¢467
45.0¢66
44.0¢10
43.0¢262
Asks (Sell)
51.0¢432
52.0¢943
53.0¢2,931
54.0¢3,783
55.0¢2,895
56.0¢1,891
57.0¢1,394
58.0¢1,461
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
51.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
52.06¢+2.08%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
55.33¢+8.48%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?
98.13%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 50.50%, based on $11.3K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 5, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.