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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
0.35%
07 AM08 AM09 AM10 AM11 AM12 PM01 PM02 PM03 PM04 PM05 PM06 PM07 PM08 PM09 PM10 PM11 PMWed 0201 AM02 AM03 AM04 AM05 AM06 AM07 AM08 AM09 AM10 AM11 AM12 PM00.511.522.533.54%0.35%

Stats

24h Volume
$10.1K

Your call

The market says 0.3%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price0.50%
Spread + depth+13.25 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability13.75%
7274
Shares
$6,274
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.3¢ (85.7%)
Mid Price
0.4¢
Total Depth
$30,054
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
0.2¢33
0.1¢58,446
Asks (Sell)
0.5¢800
0.6¢226
0.7¢246
0.8¢200
1.0¢355
1.2¢156
1.4¢20
1.5¢100
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
3.11¢+522.46%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
13.75¢+2649.41%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
56.52¢+11203.50%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?
98.13%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 0.35%, based on $10.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 11, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.