11.50%
Executive Briefing
Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 88.5% on "Iran full airspace closure by September 30?", backed by $78.0K in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- $78.0K
- Momentum
- -0.01pt/day
Live Order Book Depth
Spread
1.0¢ (8.7%)
Mid Price
11.5¢
Total Depth (shown levels)
$60,646
Bid/Ask Imbalance
7% bid
Bids (Buy)
11.0¢1,000
10.0¢3,877
9.0¢4,165
8.0¢9,602
7.0¢1,437
6.0¢2,183
5.0¢9,489
4.0¢12,724
Asks (Sell)
12.0¢1,298
13.0¢4,916
14.0¢3,156
15.0¢1,925
17.0¢45
18.0¢906
19.0¢1,564
20.0¢1,065
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
12.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
13.02¢+8.52%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
31.07¢+158.92%
avg fill · slippage
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):
ManifoldWill Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?
66.66%Same bet?
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Iran full airspace closure by September 30?"?
As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 11.50%, based on $78.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.