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Politics · Kalshi

Elissa Slotkin — Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

Trade on Kalshi →
34.50%
29.91% fee-adjusted
Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 06Sep 133035404550%38.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 36.6% in 14d (32.3–41.1%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$2.6K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 34.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
KalshiLive best ask
Quoted price34.50%
Spread + depth+12.50 pts
Fee3.71% of stake
Break-even probability48.74%
2128
Shares
$1,091
Net if it wins

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)4.59%
Platforms disagree by 33.5pts — wider than usual, worth checking each quote below before trusting the average.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
Kalshi
Furthest from consensus
Elissa Slotkin — Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?34.5%22¢ / 47¢
11%
PredictItWho will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?: Slotkin1.00%
89%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Elissa Slotkin — Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 34.50%, based on $2.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2028, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: PredictIt (1.00%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 4.59%. See the full comparison table below.