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Politics · Kalshi

Josh Shapiro — Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

Trade on Kalshi →
76.00%
74.32% fee-adjusted
Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 06Sep 137072747678808284%73.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 72.3% in 14d (70.2–74.3%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$165
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Other Real Candidates — 38 Total

Every other real Kalshi contract for this exact same question, ranked by real live probability.

Andy Beshear
86.00%
Pete Buttigieg
85.50%
Gavin Newsom
83.50%
Cory Booker
81.50%
Rahm Emanuel
81.50%
Kamala Harris
78.50%
J.B. Pritzker
77.50%
Ro Khanna
77.50%
Josh ShapiroViewing
76.00%
Wes Moore
70.50%
Mark Kelly
69.50%
Jon Ossoff
68.00%
Chris Murphy
64.00%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
63.50%
Mitch Landrieu
60.00%
Elissa Slotkin
46.00%
Raphael Warnock
45.00%
Chris Van Hollen
38.50%
Jared Polis
37.50%
Shawn Fain
32.50%
Ruben Gallego
30.00%
Phil Murphy
27.00%
Gretchen Whitmer
25.50%
Stephen A. Smith
23.50%
Dean Phillips
23.00%
Abigail Spanberger
22.00%
John Fetterman
20.50%
Mikie Sherrill
19.00%
Roy Cooper
18.50%
Jon Stewart
16.00%
Mark Cuban
15.00%
Hunter Biden
14.50%
James Talarico
12.50%
Michelle Obama
8.05%
Tim Walz
7.55%
Amy Klobuchar
7.50%
Hillary Clinton
2.95%
Barack Obama
2.60%

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)29.00%
Platforms disagree by 70.5pts — wider than usual, worth checking each quote below before trusting the average.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
Kalshi
Furthest from consensus
Josh Shapiro — Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?76.0%75¢ / 77¢
33%
PredictItWho will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?: Shapiro5.50%5¢ / 6¢
67%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Josh Shapiro — Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 76.00%, based on $165 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2028, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: PredictIt (5.50%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 29.00%. See the full comparison table below.