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Politics · Kalshi

Pete Hegseth — Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

Trade on Kalshi →
19.50%
13.87% fee-adjusted
Jun 07Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 06Sep 1310121416182022242628%21.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 23.2% in 14d (21.4–25.1%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$0
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Other Real Candidates — 35 Total

Every other real Kalshi contract for this exact same question, ranked by real live probability.

J.D. Vance
81.00%
Ted Cruz
75.50%
Ron DeSantis
64.50%
Marco Rubio
60.00%
Thomas Massie
49.00%
Rand Paul
43.50%
Glenn Youngkin
37.00%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
35.50%
Brian Kemp
34.50%
John McEntee
32.00%
Josh Hawley
31.50%
Gregory Bovino
29.50%
Tulsi Gabbard
29.00%
Tucker Carlson
28.00%
Vivek Ramaswamy
26.50%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
26.50%
Donald J. Trump Jr.
25.50%
Steve Bannon
22.50%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
21.50%
Nikki Haley
21.00%
Byron Donalds
21.00%
Pete HegsethViewing
19.50%
Greg Abbott
18.50%
Spencer Pratt
15.50%
Jeff Bezos
15.00%
Donald J. Trump
14.50%
Erika Kirk
14.50%
Tim Scott
13.00%
Larry Hogan
13.00%
Elise Stefanik
12.00%
Katie Britt
10.90%
Jared Kushner
10.50%
John Thune
6.30%
Matt Gaetz
5.40%
Elon Musk
3.20%

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (3 platforms, liquidity-weighted)High-Confidence2.90%
Platforms disagree by 19.05pts — wider than usual, worth checking each quote below before trusting the average.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
Kalshi
Furthest from consensus
Pete Hegseth — Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?19.5%18¢ / 21¢
12%
PolymarketWill Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.45%0.4¢ / 0.5¢
75%
PredictItWho will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?: Hegseth1.00%—
12%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Pete Hegseth — Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 19.50%, based on $0 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2028, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: Polymarket (0.45%), PredictIt (1.00%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 3 platforms is 2.90%. See the full comparison table below.