Politics · Kalshi

Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada before the next general election?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada before the next general election?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 14%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Kalshi →

13.50%

7.45% fee-adjusted

Model projection: 11.3% in 14d (8.8–14.5%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Kalshi consensus prices "No" at 86.5% on "Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada before the next general election?", backed by $0 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $0
Momentum: -0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 13.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

KalshiLive best ask

Quoted price13.50%

Spread + depth+1.50 pts

Fee5.95% of stake

Break-even probability15.89%

6667

$5,607

Net if it wins

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada before the next general election?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 13.50%, based on $0 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 15, 2029, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.