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Politics · Kalshi

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Trade on Kalshi →
16.50%
10.66% fee-adjusted
Jun 07Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 06Sep 13810121416182022%17.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 17.4% in 14d (15.6–19.3%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$21.9K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 16.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
KalshiLive best ask
Quoted price16.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee5.81% of stake
Break-even probability17.99%
5882
Shares
$4,824
Net if it wins

Other Real Candidates — 36 Total

Every other real Kalshi contract for this exact same question, ranked by real live probability.

Alexandria Ocasio-CortezViewing
16.50%
Jon Ossoff
16.50%
Gavin Newsom
13.50%
Kamala Harris
8.20%
Pete Buttigieg
5.60%
Mark Kelly
5.20%
Josh Shapiro
4.85%
Andy Beshear
3.55%
Rahm Emanuel
3.45%
Wes Moore
2.45%
Ro Khanna
1.95%
James Talarico
1.60%
Michelle Obama
1.55%
Mark Cuban
1.40%
J.B. Pritzker
1.40%
Gretchen Whitmer
0.85%
Raphael Warnock
0.80%
Cory Booker
0.60%
Chris Murphy
0.55%
Jon Stewart
0.50%
Ruben Gallego
0.45%
Stephen A. Smith
0.45%
Elissa Slotkin
0.45%
Hunter Biden
0.35%
Roy Cooper
0.35%
Bernie Sanders
0.30%
Jamie Dimon
0.25%
Tim Walz
0.20%
Barack Obama
0.20%
Liz Cheney
0.20%
Zohran Mamdani
0.15%
John Fetterman
0.15%
Jared Polis
0.10%
Gina Raimondo
0.10%
Phil Murphy
0.10%
Lebron James
0.10%

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)17.38%
Platforms differ by 3.5pts — a normal range.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
KalshiWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?16.5%16¢ / 17¢
75%
PolymarketWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?20.00%—
25%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 16.50%, based on $21.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 7, 2028, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: Polymarket (20.00%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 17.38%. See the full comparison table below.