Will Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom both run for president in 2028?
Trade on Manifold →Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "No" at 91.1% on "Will Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom both run for president in 2028?", backed by 220 Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 220 Mana
Your call
The market says 8.9%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.
True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):
Similar Politics Markets
PolymarketWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
no history published
PolymarketWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
no history published
PredictItWho will win the 2028 US presidential election?: Harris
no history published
PredictItWho will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?: Harris
no history published
PredictItWho will win the 2028 US presidential election?: Newsom
no history published
PredictItWho will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?: Newsom
no history published
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom both run for president in 2028?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 8.90%, based on 220 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2028, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.