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Culture · Manifold

New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027

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62.83%

Stats

24h Volume
10 Mana

Your call

The market says 62.8%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
ManifoldQuoted price only
Quoted price62.83%
Spread + depth0.00 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability62.83%
1592
Shares
$592
Net if it wins

AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027"?

As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 62.83%, based on 10 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2027, per Manifold's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.