AI · Manifold

OpenAI flips Apple before 2030?

Q: What is the current probability for "OpenAI flips Apple before 2030?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 46%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Manifold — see the link on this page for the live order book.

45.88%

Executive Briefing

Live Manifold consensus prices "No" at 54.12% on "OpenAI flips Apple before 2030?", backed by 69 Mana in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: 69 Mana

Your call

The market says 45.9%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

ManifoldQuoted price only

Quoted price45.88%

Spread + depth0.00 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability45.88%

2180

$1,180

Net if it wins

AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "OpenAI flips Apple before 2030?"?

As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 45.88%, based on 69 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2029, per Manifold's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.