Will China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026?
Trade on Manifold →Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "No" at 90.25% on "Will China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026?", backed by 482 Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 482 Mana
Your call
The market says 9.8%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
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Compare Across Platforms
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 9.75%, based on 482 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.