Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "No" at 71.22% on "What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?", backed by 21 Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 21 Mana
Your call
The market says 28.8%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
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True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 28.78%, based on 21 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 30, 2026, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.