Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "Yes" at 61.49% on "Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?", backed by 455 Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 455 Mana
Your call
The market says 61.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.
True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):
Similar AI Markets
PolymarketWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
no history published
ManifoldWill Anthropic have the best public model when they IPO?
no history published
PolymarketWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
no history published
PolymarketWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
no history published
ManifoldWill Grok 4.7 be released on 9/11?
no history published
ManifoldWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
no history published
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 61.49%, based on 455 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2027, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.