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Politics · Polymarket

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
17.50%
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 171214161820222426%17.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 15.8% in 14d (14.5–17.2%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$106.6K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 17.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price17.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability18.00%
5556
Shares
$4,556
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (5.7%)
Mid Price
17.5¢
Total Depth
$567,981
Bid/Ask Imbalance
9% bid
Bids (Buy)
17.0¢117
16.0¢29,848
15.0¢28,276
14.0¢19,934
13.0¢39,224
12.0¢5,950
11.0¢7,196
10.0¢10,752
Asks (Sell)
18.0¢33,748
19.0¢19,116
20.0¢21,543
21.0¢1,400
22.0¢886
23.0¢510
24.0¢455
25.0¢5,010
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
18.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
18.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
18.41¢+2.25%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 17.50%, based on $106.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.