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Finance · Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 2?

Trade on Polymarket →
57.50%
04 PM05 PM06 PM07 PM08 PM09 PM10 PM11 PMWed 0201 AM02 AM03 AM04 AM05 AM06 AM07 AM08 AM09 AM10 AM11 AM12 PM35404550556065%58.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$16.0K

Your call

The market says 57.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price57.50%
Spread + depth+7.58 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability65.08%
1537
Shares
$537
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.6%)
Mid Price
61.5¢
Total Depth
$68,757
Bid/Ask Imbalance
12% bid
Bids (Buy)
61.0¢1,207
60.0¢905
59.0¢755
58.0¢655
57.0¢755
56.0¢750
55.0¢526
52.0¢400
Asks (Sell)
62.0¢20
63.0¢97
64.0¢219
65.0¢600
66.0¢1,150
67.0¢750
68.0¢750
69.0¢250
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
63.13¢+1.83%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
65.08¢+4.97%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
81.56¢+31.55%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

LimitlessS&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily
60.00%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 2?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 57.50%, based on $16.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 2, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.