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Finance · Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on September 15?

Trade on Polymarket →
81.50%
04 PM05 PM06 PM07 PM08 PM09 PM10 PM11 PMTue 1501 AM02 AM03 AM04 AM05 AM06 AM07 AM08 AM09 AM10 AM11 AM12 PM01 PM02 PM6065707580859095%81.00%

Stats

24h Volume
$2.9K

Your call

The market says 81.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price81.50%
Spread + depth+1.09 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability82.59%
1211
Shares
$211
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (2.5%)
Mid Price
80.0¢
Total Depth
$34,619
Bid/Ask Imbalance
38% bid
Bids (Buy)
79.0¢60
78.0¢50
77.0¢200
76.0¢200
75.0¢50
56.0¢400
41.0¢65
40.0¢1,625
Asks (Sell)
81.0¢13
82.0¢500
83.0¢663
84.0¢150
92.0¢51
93.0¢600
98.0¢36
99.0¢20,022
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
81.89¢+1.10%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
82.59¢+1.97%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
96.53¢+19.17%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

LimitlessS&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on September 15?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 81.50%, based on $2.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 15, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.