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AI · Polymarket

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
86.50%
Sat 19Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 27Mon 28Tue 29Wed 30OctoberFri 02Sat 03Oct 04Mon 05Tue 06Wed 0730405060708090100%86.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 95.7% in 14d (94.0–96.9%)+0.02pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$710
Momentum
+0.02pt/day

Your call

The market says 86.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price86.50%
Spread + depth+2.58 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability89.08%
1123
Shares
$123
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
3.0¢ (3.5%)
Mid Price
86.5¢
Total Depth
$9,739
Bid/Ask Imbalance
55% bid
Bids (Buy)
85.0¢138
84.0¢884
83.0¢91
82.0¢18
81.0¢118
80.0¢20
79.0¢20
78.0¢20
Asks (Sell)
88.0¢307
89.0¢418
90.0¢754
91.0¢65
92.0¢355
93.0¢244
94.0¢979
95.0¢930
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
88.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
89.08¢+1.23%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
93.17¢+5.88%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 86.50%, based on $710 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.