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AI · Polymarket

Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
29.00%
26.7% calibrated
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 1710203040506070%29.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 24.7% in 14d (21.0–29.0%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$5.0K
Momentum
-0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 29.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price29.00%
Spread + depth+42.94 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability71.94%
1390
Shares
$390
Net if it wins

The book cannot fill this whole order. The figures above cover only the part that would fill — the rest has no price on this venue right now.

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
4.0¢ (13.8%)
Mid Price
29.0¢
Total Depth
$1,279
Bid/Ask Imbalance
73% bid
Bids (Buy)
27.0¢225
26.0¢103
25.0¢200
18.0¢104
15.0¢47
14.0¢50
13.0¢141
11.0¢188
Asks (Sell)
31.0¢80
33.0¢54
52.0¢15
53.0¢6
61.0¢5
63.0¢5
73.0¢20
88.0¢29
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
46.79¢+50.93%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
71.94¢+132.05%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully
$10,000 order
71.94¢+132.05%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 29.00%, based on $5.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.