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Finance · Polymarket

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
8.50%
Live Bitcoin Price$86,321▲ 0.87% 24h· via CoinGecko
Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 0705101520253035%8.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 7.0% in 14d (5.2–9.2%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$36.0K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 8.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price8.50%
Spread + depth+1.26 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability9.76%
10248
Shares
$9,248
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (11.8%)
Mid Price
8.5¢
Total Depth
$448,542
Bid/Ask Imbalance
10% bid
Bids (Buy)
8.0¢5,100
7.0¢43,579
6.0¢11,351
5.0¢22,375
4.0¢717,070
3.0¢8,296
2.0¢10,751
1.0¢1,121,777
Asks (Sell)
9.0¢2,480
10.0¢19,143
11.0¢19,999
12.0¢1,682
13.0¢23,250
14.0¢7,405
15.0¢8,735
16.0¢4,548
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
9.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
9.76¢+8.42%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
12.01¢+33.44%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldBitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?
81.04%
Same bet?

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 8.50%, based on $36.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.