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Culture · Polymarket

Will CDU win between 23% and 26% of all valid second votes?

Trade on Polymarket →
32.00%
Fri 21Sat 22Aug 23Mon 24Tue 25Wed 26Thu 27Fri 28Sat 29Aug 30Mon 31SeptemberWed 02Thu 03Fri 04Sat 05Sep 06101520253035404550%31.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 33.5% in 3d (25.3–43.0%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$5.6K
Momentum
+0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 32.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price32.00%
Spread + depth+4.59 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability36.59%
2733
Shares
$1,733
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (3.2%)
Mid Price
31.5¢
Total Depth
$14,675
Bid/Ask Imbalance
9% bid
Bids (Buy)
31.0¢633
30.0¢840
29.0¢250
28.0¢696
11.0¢255
10.0¢1,133
7.0¢400
4.0¢1,609
Asks (Sell)
32.0¢43
33.0¢166
34.0¢452
35.0¢103
36.0¢238
37.0¢703
38.0¢513
39.0¢788
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
33.16¢+3.64%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
36.59¢+14.33%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
54.08¢+68.99%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will CDU win between 23% and 26% of all valid second votes?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 32.00%, based on $5.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 6, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.