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Culture · Polymarket

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Trade on Polymarket →
11.50%
Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 1968101214161820%11.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 11.3% in 14d (10.8–11.8%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$16.8K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 11.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price11.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability12.00%
8333
Shares
$7,333
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (8.7%)
Mid Price
11.5¢
Total Depth
$275,307
Bid/Ask Imbalance
17% bid
Bids (Buy)
11.0¢8,023
10.0¢81,231
9.0¢62,270
8.0¢31,341
7.0¢40,283
6.0¢16,675
5.0¢17,388
4.0¢11,734
Asks (Sell)
12.0¢56,598
13.0¢11,071
14.0¢3,436
15.0¢5,794
16.0¢3,991
17.0¢5,697
18.0¢10,672
19.0¢10,330
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
12.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
12.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
12.58¢+4.80%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 11.50%, based on $16.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2028, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.