Live odds aggregated fromPolymarket logoPolymarketKalshi logoKalshiManifold logoManifoldPredictIt logoPredictItLimitless logoLimitlessSmarkets logoSmarketsFutuurSee ranked by volume →
Culture · Polymarket

Will Drake release a new album by December 31?

Trade on Polymarket →
22.50%
10 PM11 PMSat 0501 AM02 AM03 AM04 AM05 AM06 AM07 AM08 AM09 AM10 AM11 AM12 PM01 PM02 PM03 PM04 PM05 PM06 PM07 PM08 PM152025303540455055%22.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$7.1K

Your call

The market says 22.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price22.50%
Spread + depth+12.61 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability35.11%
2848
Shares
$1,848
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (4.4%)
Mid Price
22.5¢
Total Depth
$2,285
Bid/Ask Imbalance
37% bid
Bids (Buy)
22.0¢46
17.0¢50
15.0¢327
14.0¢739
13.0¢2,943
12.0¢128
11.0¢300
10.0¢500
Asks (Sell)
23.0¢562
28.0¢55
29.0¢200
32.0¢59
33.0¢238
34.0¢243
36.0¢66
37.0¢294
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
23.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
35.11¢+52.64%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
38.92¢+69.21%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Similar Culture Markets

Polymarket logoPolymarket
▼ 3.424H
4.75%+2005

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?

4.75%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $146.4K
Manifold logoManifold
53.65%-116

Will my tabletop detective game sell 30+ copies before December?

53.65%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 0 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
36.39%+175

Will Luffy defeat Imu in the official One Piece manga before December 31, 2026?

36.39%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 0 Mana
Polymarket logoPolymarket
▲ 824H
66.50%-199

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

66.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $461.0K
Polymarket logoPolymarket
▲ 0.6524H
3.00%+3233

Iran leadership change by September 30?

3.00%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $316.2K
Polymarket logoPolymarket
▲ 2.524H
46.00%+117

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

46.00%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $104.3K

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Drake release a new album by December 31?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 22.50%, based on $7.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.