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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
20.50%
Tue 08Wed 09Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 27Mon 28051015202530354045%20.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 32.4% in 14d (26.6–38.7%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$2.7K
Momentum
+0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 20.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price20.50%
Spread + depth+10.64 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability31.14%
3212
Shares
$2,212
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
3.0¢ (14.6%)
Mid Price
20.5¢
Total Depth
$8,816
Bid/Ask Imbalance
8% bid
Bids (Buy)
19.0¢85
18.0¢315
17.0¢191
16.0¢850
13.0¢241
12.0¢100
10.0¢51
8.0¢100
Asks (Sell)
22.0¢15
23.0¢365
24.0¢999
25.0¢1,239
29.0¢5
33.0¢8
40.0¢15
41.0¢20
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
23.09¢+4.95%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
31.14¢+41.53%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
76.39¢+247.21%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 20.50%, based on $2.7K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.