Politics · Polymarket

Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

0.15%

Model projection: 0.5% in 14d (0.4–0.5%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 99.85% on "Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?", backed by $58.7K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $58.7K
Momentum: -0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 0.1%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price0.50%

Spread + depth+1.08 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability1.58%

63186

$62,186

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

0.1¢ (66.7%)

Mid Price

0.1¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$612,110

Bid/Ask Imbalance

0% bid

Bids (Buy)

0.1¢141,302

Asks (Sell)

0.2¢6,220

0.3¢9,808

0.4¢5,628

0.5¢4,859

0.6¢152

0.7¢5,126

0.8¢871

0.9¢2,983

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

0.36¢+77.59%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

1.58¢+691.32%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

9.27¢+4534.49%

avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Similar Politics Markets

Polymarket

▼ 0.1524H

0.15%

Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

0.15%Live price only —
no history published

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

78.50%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $60.8K

Polymarket

0.15%

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

0.15%Live price only —
no history published

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

84.50%Live price only —
no history published

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

70.50%Live price only —
no history published

Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.15%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $1.7M

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 0.15%, based on $58.7K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.