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Culture · Polymarket

Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Trade on Polymarket →
0.05%
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 1100.511.522.53%0.05%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 0.5% in 10d (0.5–0.5%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$125.5K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 0.1%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price0.50%
Spread + depth+1.91 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability2.41%
41512
Shares
$40,512
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
—
Mid Price
—
Total Depth
$2,361,225
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
Asks (Sell)
0.1¢31,272
0.2¢49
0.3¢345
0.4¢212
0.5¢181
0.6¢412
0.7¢115
0.8¢131
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
0.27¢+172.09%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
2.41¢+2308.91%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
19.11¢+19007.99%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 8 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

Carlos Alcaraz
37.50%
Alexander Zverev
22.15%
Alex de Minaur
2.15%
Alex Michelsen
0.60%
Karen Khachanov
0.15%
Hubert HurkaczViewing
0.05%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
0.05%
Rafael Jodar
0.05%

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

Manifold🎾 Will an American man reach the 2026 US Open men's singles final?
33.62%
Same bet?

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's US Open?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 0.05%, based on $125.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 13, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.