Culture · Polymarket

Will Linke win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will Linke win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 42%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

41.50%

Model projection: 47.4% in 14d (36.2–59.0%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 58.5% on "Will Linke win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?", backed by $5.2K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $5.2K
Momentum: +0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 41.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price41.50%

Spread + depth+3.54 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability45.04%

2220

$1,220

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

3.0¢ (7.2%)

Mid Price

41.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$134,855

Bid/Ask Imbalance

12% bid

Bids (Buy)

40.0¢379

39.0¢260

38.0¢50

35.0¢10

34.0¢28

33.0¢175

32.0¢200

31.0¢522

Asks (Sell)

43.0¢340

44.0¢509

45.0¢429

46.0¢612

47.0¢508

48.0¢370

49.0¢262

50.0¢339

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

43.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

45.04¢+4.74%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

61.12¢+42.15%

avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Similar Culture Markets

Manifold

48.52%+106

Will Daniel Lord livestream between September 5 and September 11 in 2026?

48.52%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 7 Mana

Manifold

27.36%+265

Will Adam Riess win a second Nobel prize?

27.36%Live price only —
no history published

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 5?

0.45%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $58.4K

Manifold

49.00%+104

Will The Opportunities Party get a higher party vote percent than any of ACT, NZ First or greens?

49.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 0 Mana

Manifold

63.96%-177

Will a second Mersenne probable-prime cofactor be found in 2026?

63.96%Live price only —
no history published

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

69.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $433.6K

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Linke win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 41.50%, based on $5.2K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 20, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.