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Politics · Polymarket

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Trade on Polymarket →
97.35%
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 1590919293949596979899100%97.80%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 98.1% in 14d (97.5–98.5%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$4.9K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 97.3%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price97.35%
Spread + depth+0.96 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability98.31%
1017
Shares
$17
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.0%)
Mid Price
97.8¢
Total Depth
$192,145
Bid/Ask Imbalance
44% bid
Bids (Buy)
97.3¢208
97.2¢51
97.1¢1,200
97.0¢3,619
96.4¢10
96.3¢9,707
96.2¢1,503
96.1¢5,011
Asks (Sell)
98.3¢951
98.5¢100
98.6¢2,823
98.7¢500
99.0¢2,643
99.2¢93
99.3¢800
99.4¢4,591
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
98.30¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
98.31¢+0.01%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
98.92¢+0.63%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 97.35%, based on $4.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.