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Politics · Polymarket

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Trade on Polymarket →
35.75%
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 152628303234363840%35.75%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 36.6% in 14d (35.6–37.6%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$57.8K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 35.8%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price35.75%
Spread + depth+0.61 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability36.36%
2750
Shares
$1,750
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.3¢ (0.8%)
Mid Price
35.8¢
Total Depth
$24,807,327
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
35.6¢290
35.5¢50
35.3¢378
35.2¢174
35.1¢140
35.0¢1,071
34.9¢220
34.8¢1,080
Asks (Sell)
35.9¢144
36.0¢155
36.2¢10
36.4¢2,300
36.6¢320
36.9¢790
37.0¢220
37.1¢23
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
35.95¢+0.13%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
36.36¢+1.28%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
41.12¢+14.53%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

PredictItWho will win the 2028 US presidential election?: Vance
21.50%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 35.75%, based on $57.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around April 30, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.