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AI · Polymarket

Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?

Trade on Polymarket →
17.50%
18.9% calibrated
Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 270102030405060708090%17.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 3.3% in 14d (1.7–6.5%)-0.04pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$3.4K
Momentum
-0.04pt/day

Your call

The market says 17.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price17.50%
Spread + depth+6.60 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability24.10%
4149
Shares
$3,149
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (5.7%)
Mid Price
17.5¢
Total Depth
$11,814
Bid/Ask Imbalance
12% bid
Bids (Buy)
17.0¢50
16.0¢82
15.0¢1,432
14.0¢1,447
13.0¢710
12.0¢2,103
11.0¢2,203
10.0¢471
Asks (Sell)
18.0¢135
19.0¢277
20.0¢766
21.0¢1,040
22.0¢189
23.0¢9
26.0¢100
27.0¢155
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
18.96¢+5.34%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
24.10¢+33.89%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
65.52¢+264.00%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldOpenAI Claims to Solve another Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?
74.03%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 17.50%, based on $3.4K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2028, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.