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AI · Polymarket

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
54.50%
Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 270102030405060708090100%54.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 89.9% in 14d (78.3–95.6%)+0.07pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$3.0K
Momentum
+0.07pt/day

Your call

The market says 54.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price54.50%
Spread + depth+4.63 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability59.13%
1691
Shares
$691
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (3.7%)
Mid Price
54.0¢
Total Depth
$11,020
Bid/Ask Imbalance
18% bid
Bids (Buy)
53.0¢20
51.0¢260
42.0¢234
41.0¢53
39.0¢18
38.0¢18
32.0¢110
31.0¢487
Asks (Sell)
55.0¢309
56.0¢260
58.0¢50
59.0¢113
60.0¢500
61.0¢233
62.0¢18
63.0¢69
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
55.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
59.13¢+7.50%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
76.91¢+39.83%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill OpenAI solve a new millennium prize problem by EOY 2026?
70.67%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 54.50%, based on $3.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.